ARCOM

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Addae-Dapaah, K and Ching, W H (2003) Effects of property acquisition and disposal on property stock value. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 8(03), 139–54.

Chau, K W, Wong, S K and Yiu, C Y (2003) Price discovery function of forward contracts in the real estate market: an empirical test. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 8(03), 129–38.

Dowse, G (2003) Qualitative residential market forecasts: the Auckland experience. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 8(03), 193–201.

Type: Journal Article
Keywords: Real estate market forecasts; New Zealand; Auckland residential property market; expert panels
ISBN/ISSN: 1366-4387
URL: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/journals.htm?issn=1366-4387
Abstract:
Several years ago the Massey University Real Estate Analysis Unit (MUREAU) established the Auckland residential property market outlook survey series, incorporating quarterly forecasts for the four main cities in the Auckland region. The series attempts to bridge the gap between historic market information and forecasting future real estate market behaviour; to improve the range of information available to the property industry and the public so that people may be in a better position to report, make decisions, generate other analyses etc. at various points in time during the course of property ownership, lease, mortgage etc. The forecasts are based on confidential questionnaires completed each quarter by a panel of property experts. This paper reviews the accuracy of the quarterly property market forecasts by comparing the Auckland panellists' forecasts to market indicators. The author concludes the expert panellists have performed reasonably well, by correctly predicting the direction of market price changes around 75% of the time. The ability of the panellists to predict movement in sales volumes does not appear to be as good. However, on average the expert panellists achieved better results than naïve forecasting.

Hui, E C M and Yiu, C Y (2003) Market dynamics of private residential real estate price - an empirical test in Hong Kong. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 8(03), 155–66.

Newell, G and Karantonis, A (2003) The predictive accuracy of investor sentiment for commercial property in Australia. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 8(03), 117–28.

Parker, D, MacFarlane, J, Peng, V and Murray, J (2003) Forecasting property market cycles: An application of the RICS model to the Sydney CBD office market. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 8(03), 178–92.